Agosto dejó una economía de apenas un suspiro después del golpe de julio

El Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica del INDEC tyl painted August como un mes de virtual quietud: the general indicator rose just 0,1% compared with July, a move insufficient to offset the 2,9% drop of the previous month. In turn, it was 1,7% lower than in August 2025, while the underlying trend-cycle series showed no variation.

The picture is more complex when the sectors are separated. Of the fifteen branches measured by the indicator, only five grew year on year. Mining recorded an 11,1% increase; electricity, gas and water rose 4,3%; and hotels and restaurants advanced 3,1%. Together, those three activities contributed 0,6 percentage points to the annual change.

The weight of the decline came from the sectors linked to the domestic market

Fishing was the activity with the sharpest annual fall, at 15,7%. Nevertheless, the greatest drag on the overall result came from manufacturing, which declined 3,2%, and wholesale and retail trade and repair services, which fell 3,5%. According to the data, those two sectors together subtracted 0,9 percentage points from the index.

The CEPEC described the outcome as much worse than expected, because analysts had anticipated a clearer rebound after July's collapse. From that center, they linked the weakness of industry and trade to the difficulties affecting sectors connected with the domestic market, with direct consequences for production, employment and incomes.

August was the fourth month of the year with a positive monthly result, after increases of 0,3% in January, 2,6% in March and 0,8% in June. Even so, the accumulated performance between January and August stood at only 1,2% above the same period of 2025, a modest gain that does not erase the recent fall.

• Overall activity rose 0,1% month on month in August.
• The figure did not recover the 2,9% drop recorded in July.
• Activity was 1,7% lower than in August 2025.
• Five of the fifteen sectors measured grew year on year.
• Manufacturing fell 3,2%, and commerce and repair services declined 3,5%.
• Fishing posted the largest annual decrease, at 15,7%.

For people who work in commerce, manufacturing or fishing, the figures point to a particularly sensitive environment: less activity can mean weaker demand, pressure on incomes and uncertainty about what comes next. The connection between these sectors and employment is one of the central issues left by the August reading, beyond the modest monthly rebound.